The retail move puts Reliance into competition against government controlled refiners like Bharat Petroleum Corp, Hindustan Petroleum Corp and Indian Oil Corp, the country’s biggest refiner.Reliance’s domestic strategy initially won the backing of investors and the retail fuels group was touted by company Chairman Mukesh Ambani in a speech at its annual general meeting in July.Between January and August, Reliance’s shares soared 45 per cent, far outpacing the state-owned refiners as well as India’s main stock index, the Nifty 50, which gained 12.5 per cent.But rising crude prices, which jumped from under $70 per barrel in early 2018 to around $85 in early October, and a tumbling rupee combined to push domestic fuel prices to records, undermining Reliance’s retail strategy despite some relief from a dip in crude prices in recent weeks.

Still, Rohit Ahuja, senior vice president of India’s BOB Capital Markets, which has a buy rating on Reliance, said signs of an “oil price shock” in India were “already visible.”Reliance may gradually mothball foam board barrel screws Factory its retail stations because of the cost controls, said Macquarie Capital Ltd Analyst Aditya Suresh in a note on Oct. 5, though the bank expects no meaningful impact on its earnings.EXPORT MARKET & IMO 2020Reliance may be better placed to thrive on exports despite the increasing competition in Asia and the Middle East.The company operates the world’s biggest refinery complex at the port of Jamnagar in Gujarat. The first Jamnagar plant can process 663,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude while the second site can process another 709,000 bpd.Reliance’s refining margins last quarter were at a premium of $3.40 per barrel over the average Singapore margin, the benchmark for Asia.However, the Singapore margin has dropped by about 50 percent since mid-2017 because of rising crude prices.

Reliance also said in its results that fewer refinery outages last quarter meant global run rates were high.Still, Reliance’s refineries benefit from being among the most modern in the world.Several units process residual fuel oil, the leftovers after crude oil is initially refined, into higher-value petrol and distillate products as well as remove pollutants such as sulphur.That ability to cut its high-sulphur fuel oil output to nearly nothing while maximising its diesel fuel output gives Reliance an advantage as the International Maritime Organization (IMO) will require new low-sulphur fuel oil used in ships starting in 2020.“IMO regulations are positive because of our mid-distillate configuration,” said Reliance’s Srikanth.With a move towards cleaner fuels as part of IMO, BOB Capital’s Ahuja said Reliance’s gross refining margins could rise by up to $5 per barrel.Beyond IMO 2020 and the Indian fuel price turmoil, the oil industry is threatened by the rise of electric vehicles and alternative fuels that could reduce oil’s use as a transport fuel.Refiners are looking at petrochemicals to replace potentially lost demand in the transport sector.

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